Now that the Senate has voted not to remove president Trump from office it appears the 2019 impeachment saga is finally over and, as Republicans have repeatedly argued, it’s up to voters to decide whether Trump should remain as president.
The 2020 election season is kicking into high gear now, and just in time the impeachment trial comes to an end. There is plenty of time for other events to intervene and take the edge off the bitterness, anger, frustration, or disappointment some voters feel about the impeachment votes taken by vulnerable senators.
There is one big problem with this scenario: Donald J. Trump. At least three investigations of his misbehavior in office have concluded with no formal negative consequences. The Mueller report concluded with a major hint to Congress that the only remedy available for the misbehavior of the Trump campaign and administration was impeachment, but the house leadership did not want to take up that task when collection of so much of the potential evidence had been stymied by the administration’s non-cooperation. Although it could be that eventually court cases will open the door for Congress to collect testimony from the likes of Don McGahn, it’s anybody’s guess at this point when that case will be concluded and what Congress might learn from him. Then came the administration’s attempts to extort investigations of the Bidens from Ukraine. This case was so clear it basically forced the house leadership’s hand. Nonetheless, the Republicans in the Senate played their “hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil” part and let Trump get away with it. Finally, a federal court this week threw out a case charging Trump with violations of the emoluments clause in the constitution. This is another obvious violation, so obvious that I was calling for Trump’s impeachment for this very reason in 2017. According to the court, the plaintiffs did not represent a majority of either the house or the senate and therefore had no standing.
How will Trump respond to his success so far at dodging negative consequences for misbehavior? According to Senator Susan Collins, he’s learned his lesson: “He was impeached, and there has been criticism by both Republican and Democratic senators of his call,” Collins said in a CBS interview. “I believe that he will be much more cautious in the future.”
This would be really funny if we weren’t talking about our president. Trump’s opinion of his extortion campaign? “I did nothing wrong.” “It was a perfect call.” Yeah, he learned something alright; he learned that the rest of the Republican party either loves him for violating constitutional norms or is so intimidated by him that they’ll let him get away with it. I guarantee you, Trump will do something, probably multiple things, even more out of bounds in the coming months. The general public is likely to learn more about these inevitable “high crimes and misdemeanors” before the November election than we learned about his misbehavior in the 2016 election because the white house staff is not as competent as it was then and because Trump is less likely to keep quiet about what he is doing.
Whether this leads to another impeachment is hard to say at this point; it depends on when the misbehavior is discovered, how severe are the violations and how imminent the danger to the country. The house leadership is not likely to undertake a second impeachment unless Trump’s misbehavior is a dire and imminent threat to the country and impeachment is the fastest and safest way to ensure the threat is removed. If that happens the Senate will be under immense public pressure to remove him from office and there is a good chance they will. Donald Trump may not be on the presidential ballot this November and if that happens he will have nobody to blame but himself.
This post is also the first in a series and an open invitation to anyone of my friends, relatives, or acquaintances who disagrees with my take on the upcoming election to engage in an ongoing discussion. Only registered users have discussion privileges on this topic. Feel free to register and discuss!